“Car Exercises”: The Return of the Manual Gearbox [2025 Automotive Industry Predictions]

I want this to be the first year of driving.

I don’t think it’s a good idea to write something like “This is what 2025 will be like!”, which doesn’t seem like much fun, so I think it would be better to say “This is how I hope 2025 will be!” So…

What is happening in the automotive industry right now is that major companies, countries, and regions around the world are competing for dominance in an attempt to finally confront the true essence of automobiles (i.e., being a means of transportation) and create a huge new market by creating functions that will be expected in life in the near future.

For 20th century car enthusiasts, things are likely to get pretty boring in the future, with no more need for unnecessary performance or driving fun, and a new breed of car enthusiast likely to emerge who will believe that software is more important than hardware.

But we must not give up. Surely there will be a backlash after all? No, I hope there will be! So, especially since 2025 is the year when Ferrari will finally release a fully battery-powered model, I hope that it will once again be “the year of car driving.” I also hope that electric horses and electric cows will be fun vehicles.

Equipment that allows you to experience the ultimate driving pleasure

However, this goes against the trend of the times, which is to reduce human judgment and move towards automation. It’s the exact opposite. There’s no way that a respectable automaker that goes public and claims to have zero (fatal) accidents would take such a thing seriously. However, what is actually happening in various parts of the market is a movement to rediscover, or at least try to rediscover, the joy of driving a car. It’s like a resistance movement calling for the driving to be taken back into human hands.

The first step is a three-pedal manual gearbox. Three-pedal manual transmissions are currently attracting attention in the hypercar world. Pagani has developed a three-pedal version of the Utopia in response to customer requests, and it seems that 70% of customers choose it. Gordon Murray initially offered both three-pedal and two-pedal versions, but found that so few people chose the two-pedal version that they ended up sticking with the three-pedal version.

I believe that no other piece of equipment plays a more important role in making driving a pleasure than the manual gearbox (incidentally, while I understand the logic behind the revival of manual transmissions to prevent pedal misapplication, I cannot agree). The pleasure of driving is the process of operating a machine and making it move the way you want it to, or being able to make it move.

Operating a machine naturally requires the use of your hands and feet, and there is a strong element of exercise to it. In such cases, a three-pedal manual transmission allows you to use your hands for more than just steering, and your left foot has an active role in addition to using the brake pedal, maximizing the exercise effect in the sense that you use your whole body when driving. When your head, hips, hands and feet are in perfect harmony and the car moves just as you want it to, car enthusiasts feel a happiness that is hard to find anywhere else.

I want it to spread to the world

The manual gearbox is making a comeback. I’m happy to say that Lexus has offered a manual gearbox in their compact SUV, the LBX. Even though they have the resources of the GR Yaris, a typical premium brand wouldn’t even consider offering such a specification, let alone planning one. Think back. How many premium brands have offered a manual gearbox in the past, not in sports cars, but in SUVs? As far as I can remember, the only one is the Porsche Cayenne.

Although not a premium brand, Mazda is also a brand that has produced many manual transmission vehicles, not just SUVs. They even have the world’s best manual transmission model, the Roadster. There are still many manual transmission sports models left in Japan, and the anti-two-pedal revolution is truly underway.

I hope that this is not the peak and that the number will continue to increase. And I hope that this movement will spread to the world. Perhaps Ferrari and Lamborghini will once again find value in manual gearbox specifications rather than hypercars and plan new entry-level sports models… Dino, Urraco, once again! (It doesn’t matter if the name is different.)

I’ve been driving for 25 years now, and as I approach my 60th birthday, I’d like to start a new endeavor called “Car Philosophy.” Please look forward to it.